3 reasons why Trump will win the election in November
And the fundamental forces Kamala must overcome to win.
The race is already mostly run, my friends.
I will start by saying this is about projection, not preference. Kamala was my first choice from the Dem debates for 2020. She's an outstanding leader and legislator who would restore great credibility to the US internationally. A Black woman president (as foretold by Barbie) would be a hugely welcome step forward for the country in terms of equity. I encourage you to vote for her.
However, despite what the liberal news bubble would have me believe, I think she's going to lose. Here's why:
Trump is enjoying significant momentum
Trump is a con man, a serial sexual abuser, and a (now-convicted) felon. This isn't news to anyone and was certainly not a secret when he was elected in 2016 or narrowly lost in 2020. Those who previously voted for him (74 million/47% in 2020) didn't care sufficiently to let it sway their choice and will not start caring now. Biden's withdrawal from the race has been praised as smart, but it was necessary—those in the know should have made it happen much sooner. The televised debate was such a debacle for the Democrats that nobody remembers what Trump said there. The post-debate focus and subsequent step-down are a massive victory for Trump, and he will ride it all the way to the ballot boxes. Watch how he tries to avoid or reposition a Trump/Harris debate as much as possible because he knows how differently it will go. A bleeding Trump, pumping his fist at the crowd seconds after an attempted assassination, will be an iconic picture of our generation. We saw an admirable demonstration of courage, even for those who had never previously noted anything redeeming in his character. In the face of extreme adversity, this reaction will reverberate all the way to the voting lines with undecided voters. The Trump train is gathering speed and will be hard to stop.
Kamala is running uphill, and from behind
Historically, incumbent presidents have an advantage in elections. It remains to be seen how much of that will be passed on to VP Harris with the nomination, but it will be diluted to some extent. The harmful attachment elements with the current administration (particularly the perception of her role in failing to solve the crisis at the border) will be stickier. Kamala will face struggles with the more liberal elements of the left—undelivered election promises on student loans and climate. Billions of tax dollars were sent eastwards in support of wars that have very little support with this group. This group will never vote for Trump, but if they choose ambivalence, it could be critical. As a Senator from California, the epicenter of the 'radical liberal elite,' Kamala is vulnerable to Trump's fear-based positioning about her 'turning the whole country into California.' Those who study her current and historical policy stance will see that Kamala is typically right of center relative to the party overall. Alas, in the fast-news, post-truth world we inhabit, that will count for little.
Not an impossible position, but a hill to climb.
The GOP has a focused, single-minded election strategy
Trump's victory in 2016 was ushered in on the shoulders of a vast data-gathering exercise orchestrated by Stephen Bannon. Relentless testing of talking points, iteration of messaging, geographical targeting, and ruthless use of digital social media. Aimed not at 'what resonates' as the Dems do but 'how does this win us the White House.'The selection of JD Vance as VP serves one purpose only—winning Ohio. The GOP knows that this critical swing state could win them the presidency. Ohio is so important to them that they overlook Vance's previously harsh criticism of Trump, his lack of political experience, and even his strange relationship with his sofa for the powerful 'local candidate' draw on the ballot. Democratic-led policies are admirable and important. They center around supporting the country's minorities, who disproportionately suffer and who need and deserve our help. The GOP uses fear-based rhetoric to motivate 'forgotten America' to vote for them. This is a far more effective strategy for winning elections, especially in the battleground states. The Democrats play to win hearts and minds and to do the right thing, and the GOP plays to win power.
So this will be a bad outcome if you're a Kamala fan.
A few crumbs of comfort:
The election is more than three months away. So much can change that might overturn some of these fundamental forces. Politics is never easily predictable.
The early groundswell of funding and support for VP Harris should feel encouraging and will make for a more competitive race.
VP Harris has more support in Black communities than Biden, which could pave the way for wins in swing states in the Sun Belt (AZ, NV, GA, NC).
Whatever your preference, please recognize this critical moment and vote in November. Despite the record turnout in 2020, over a third of all eligible voters did not cast a ballot.
We must do better than that for a country that, on both sides of the aisle, claims to prize freedom so highly.
For those convinced I am doom-mongering for engagement….it’s objectively tagged as the ‘most likely’ outcome…
Love the picture. Red vs. Blue.